An Answer Page for Exercise 7

Exercise 7

What is the probability that a card drawn from a deck is either red or an ace ?
Is drawing an ace independent of drawing a red card ?


Since half of the 52 cards are red, and there are 2 aces that are not red,
the answer is obviously ( 26 + 2 ) / 52   =   7 / 13.

Now let's find out if getting a red card is independent of getting an ace.

Let A be the event that the card selected is an ace.
Let R be the event that the card selected is red.

The probability of A and R is the probability of drawing a red ace,
and this is  2 / 52   =   1 / 26.
i.e.   P( A and R ) = 1 / 26.

P( A )   =   4 / 52   =   1 / 13
P( R )   =   1 / 2

Now we can check to see if the product rule yields a true statement.

P( A ) * P( R )   =?   P( A and R )
P( A ) * P( R )   =   ( 1 / 13 ) * ( 1 / 2 )   =   1 / 26   =   P( A and R ).

So the events are indeed independent.

Let's also check the sum rule:
P ( A or R )   =?   P( A ) + P( R ) - P( A and R )

  P( A ) + P( R ) - P( A and R ) = ( 1 / 13 ) + ( 1 / 2 ) - ( 1 / 26 )
  = ( 2 / 26 ) + ( 13 / 26 ) - ( 1 / 26 )
  = 14 / 26   =   7 / 13

This agrees with our initial calculation of P( A or R ).