An Answer Page for Exercise 23

Exercise 23

Can you make a don't pass bet after the shooter has established a point ?

 

No,   because that would shift the bias to your favor.

If the point is 4 or 10,   then your probability of winning would be
1   -   3 / ( 3+6 )   =   2 / 3.

If the point is 5 or 9,   then your probability of winning would be
1   -   4 / 10   =   0.60.

And if the point is 6 or 8,   then your probability of winning would be
1   -   5 / 11   =   6 / 11     0.545

If you could make don't pass bets after a point is established then
everybody would do this and the casino would quickly go broke.